Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 44.542833 52.443880 61.070876 71.155356 82.583890 95.096857 109.795659
2024-12-29 33.535071 44.225685 56.980177 73.166357 92.994777 116.320446 145.647025
2025-01-05 26.069299 37.655543 52.477841 72.507135 98.502853 130.711767 173.195158
2025-01-12 22.887067 35.574260 52.729399 77.067160 110.069337 152.566859 210.618514
2025-01-19 17.819269 29.907002 47.213302 73.003606 109.528351 158.364336 227.357984
2025-01-26 15.716292 28.103362 46.683933 75.483840 117.687474 175.783737 259.999768
2025-02-02 14.623121 27.628390 47.932484 80.467767 129.521932 198.687985 301.078012
2025-02-09 13.101097 26.189818 47.470324 82.722554 137.387760 216.292621 335.497928
2025-02-16 11.625677 24.579457 46.496490 83.990054 143.713934 231.853308 367.573590
2025-02-23 10.152788 22.726652 44.872473 83.988166 147.961535 244.429721 395.732988
2025-03-02 8.630461 20.521636 42.362981 82.233189 149.216032 252.442220 417.352166
2025-03-09 7.753586 19.432864 41.675205 83.430834 155.183475 267.781190 450.421615
2025-03-16 6.019461 16.380685 37.245310 78.116746 150.768618 267.882930 462.153417
2025-03-23 5.357527 15.540920 36.941439 80.225524 159.123453 288.840533 507.554746
2025-03-30 4.520025 14.102775 35.231629 79.508876 162.468292 301.813487 540.924072
2025-04-06 4.285613 14.084237 36.431439 84.428890 176.073812 332.268160 603.495528
2025-04-13 3.370826 12.082564 33.088279 80.044339 172.461917 333.669851 618.912108
2025-04-20 3.074929 11.689644 33.247489 82.720836 182.031044 357.869926 672.762436
2025-04-27 2.971221 11.830766 34.651944 88.095777 197.004547 392.040100 744.499047
2025-05-04 2.705641 11.417743 34.679253 90.526054 206.440403 416.896419 801.415375
2025-05-11 2.415545 10.849950 34.243782 91.891834 213.849671 438.445105 853.446468
2025-05-18 2.099717 10.104069 33.244551 91.889800 218.505430 455.209252 897.802761
2025-05-25 1.753213 9.134637 31.502532 89.998674 219.172289 464.686669 929.754717